A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
